The Moon

For the past 4 days, it seems that the MOON or BULAN is big and bright at night. This is the time whereby a lot of mental patients in Hospital Bahagia will go even crazier. They will be in estasy. This can also be interpreted as a good omen for PAS in the KT by election this Saturday. RPK predicted a 5,000 majority vote for PAS candidate. Chinese papers reported that betting syndicate is giving the odd of 9-1 for the PAS candidate. That means at this moment (excluding cheating and vote tampering), BN is staring at a massacre. This will reflect badly on Najib who is poise to take over as PM in less than 3 months time.

If PAS wins, then it is not strange (assuming free and fair election) but what is really strange is by Najib's statement last Friday, re-affirming his confidence that Malaysia will not slip into recession. It seems that Malaysia will buck the trend. Obama had told Americans to expect recession to last for years. BOE has cut interest rate to its lowest level since 1694 because of massive contraction in economy. Singapore PM has told his citizens to brace for the worst. I think in everywhere the sentiment is the same except this great country. At this moment, to be fair, I think there is only 50-50 change we will follow the gang if the recession last one year. If it is more than one year, all bets are off. I can't see why we can be exempted since oil and palm oil prices are falling like nobody business. Not to mention about corruption which is endemic in Malaysia. After CNY, Penang and Kulim will be hit with a violent first wave Tsunami. The latest news I heard from my cousin is Intel will cut 15% of their workforce after CNY. However, it is not known whether it is global or confine to Malaysia only. If it is confined to Malaysia, that would be real bad. In 2007, when Intel starts to offer VSS, everyone was looking forward. Today, the word R is a dreaded word. After all, if you are sacked from the manufacturing sector, there is little possiblity you can get employment in other firms. Unless you go to education which will take this opportunity to squeeze you high and dry. Well at least in WOU, things are not so bad. The VC has guaranteed employment till 2013, provided you perform. It even paid one bonus for 2008. I don't think you can expect one this year. But on the relative terms, consider yourself lucky. It's better than retrenchment or shorter working hour or pay cuts. But because I am a fundamentalist value investor, a deep crisis present good opportunities to buy good business at a deep discount.